My Redline '25 Predictions vs. The Brutal Reality: A Humble Debrief

The dust has settled, the sweat has dried, and the last of the DOMS is finally fading. Redline 2025 was an absolute monster of an event, and what a weekend it was! A few weeks ago, I put my data-driven neck on the line and published some predictions for the 2025 finish times. As the old saying goes, "only a fool tries to predict the future" and after seeing the actual results, I can confirm I\u2019ve played the fool magnificently!

That weekend was diffenent than anyone anticipated, and my predictions, in some cases, weren't even close. But the goal of analyzing data isn't just to be right; it's to learn. So, let's eat some humble pie and break down what really happened.

The Prediction Scorecard: Where I Went Wrong

Let's start with the main event: my predictions versus the actual median results. As you can see below, the reality of race day was far more grueling than my spreadsheets suggested.

I have to admit, seeing a 20% difference in my Women's Doubles prediction stings a little! So where did the model break down?

For the new/modified stations, my estimations were off:

• I seriously underestimated the cumulative fatigue of the DB Burpees and Squat Thrusts. The sheer volume was a gut punch that the data couldn't fully anticipate.
• Conversely, I overestimated the difficulty of the Russian Twists. It seems many athletes found a good rhythm and it was easier than I expected.

For the existing stations, the story was similar:

• I underestimated the dreaded Sled Push & Pull. It remains the great equalizer and, for many, the ultimate maker or breaker of a race.
• I overestimated the impact of the increased distance on the Farmer's Carry. It seems grip strength and sheer grit won the day here more than I expected, and the course was shorter than advertised too.

But hey, at least I tried! And the process itself reveals some fascinating insights.

The Elite Anomaly: The Women's Advanced Shuttle Run

This is where the data gets really interesting and highlights the incredible calibre of athletes at the top. Take a look at the comparison of the Run and Shuttle Run times.

Look closely at the Shuttle Runs. The Women's Advanced Singles athletes, on average, completed this station in 6:01. This was faster than the median times for both the Men's Doubles (6:16) and Women's Doubles (6:08) teams!

How is this possible? While doubles teams can use a You-Go-I-Go strategy to rest, the top-tier singles athletes are relentlessly on the move. This data point is a testament to the incredible engine and conditioning of these competitors. The Women's Advanced athletes are, without a doubt, a class of their own. They are truly elite!

A Station-by-Station Look at the Carnage

When we look at the detailed breakdown of the median times for each station across all events, we can see which challenges truly defined the 2025 race.

Looking at the table, the new Shuttle Runs consistently emerged as the single longest station on average for most categories. The constant acceleration and deceleration over 40 reps was a massive test of conditioning.

However, the undisputed king of pain, the \"champion in a bad way,\" was the Sled Push & Pull in the Men's Advanced Singles, clocking in at a brutal 9:35. It's important to note that these times exclude competitors who only completed one round of the push and pull under the instructions of the Judges, but nevertheless got a +3:00 penalty.

Conclusion

So, while my crystal ball might be a bit cloudy, the 2025 data tells a clear story. The new movements tested our engines in unexpected ways, the Sled remains a beast, and the top athletes continue to push the boundaries of performance.

Diving into these numbers is a fantastic way to prepare for Bangkok 2025, or even KL 2026. Now we know: train for more volume, respect the Sled, and if you want to be the best, you have to be ready for absolutely anything.

Thanks for following along on this journey!

Steve