Redline '25 Doubles Predictions: A Data-Driven Forecast
With the Singles predictions causing a stir, it's time to turn our data-driven lens to one of the most exciting parts of race weekend: the Doubles events! Whether you're teaming up for as a Women's or Men's powerhouse duo, or even a dynamic mixed pair, you're likely wondering how your 2024 time might translate to the new 2025 course.
Significant changes to stations, weights, and reps mean a direct comparison is tricky. So, the Redline Results team has analyzed the new rulebook and past performance data to forecast what you can expect on race day.
A Health Warning: These are our best-effort predictions based on the available data. As the old saying goes, "Only a fool would make predictions—especially about the future” - Slaw. We encourage you to use this as a guide for your pacing strategy, but remember that anything can happen on the day!
The Prediction Summary
First, let's get straight to the numbers. Based on our analysis, here are the predicted ~Median Times for the 2025 Doubles categories compared to their 2024 counterparts. We've included the Singles predictions for context.
| Event '24 | Actual ~Median Time | Event '25 | Predicted ~Median Time | Predicted % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Womens Competitive Singles | 38:43 | Womens Level 3 Singles | 44:27 | +15% |
| Mens Competitive Singles | 44:25 | Mens Level 3 Singles | 47:22 | +7% |
| Womens Open Singles | 35:09 | Womens Level 2 Singles | 44:54 | +28% |
| Mens Open Singles | 36:57 | Mens Level 2 Singles | 45:09 | +22% |
| Women's Doubles | 43:56 | Women's Doubles | 47:26 | +8% |
| Men's Doubles | 31:15 | Men's Doubles | 35:06 | +12% |
| Mixed Doubles. | 36:03 | Mixed Doubles. | 36:52 | +2% |
The ~Median Time is the average finish time of athletes who placed in the 45th-55th percentile of their 2024 event, providing a benchmark for the "average" competitor in the main pack.
How We Made These Predictions: A Category Breakdown
How did we arrive at these numbers? By breaking down the station-by-station changes for each category and estimating their impact. The introduction of new, high-rep conditioning stations like 'Shuttle Runs' and 'Squat Thrusts' will test every team's engine, but the specific changes in weights and reps tell a different story for each division.
Women's Doubles: The Challenge is UP!
Men's Doubles: More Volume, More Work
Mixed Doubles: Lighter Loads, But New Challenges
The Hot Take: The Longest Race of 2025?
The most surprising forecast from this entire analysis is that the Women's Doubles race is predicted to be the longest event on average, with a median time of 47:26! This would make it tougher than not only the other Doubles events but also every Singles category, including the Men's Level 3 (Advanced) race.
This is driven by the significant increase in volume for the women's pairs—more calories, a longer Farmer's Carry, and a heavier Mule—compared to the significant weight reductions seen in the Mixed Doubles. Could this be the year where the Women's Doubles becomes the ultimate test of strength endurance on the Redline floor? The data suggests it's a real possibility!
Conclusion
The 2025 Doubles events are set to be a thrilling showcase of teamwork and strategy. It looks like Mixed Doubles pairs can lean into a faster, more cardio-focused race, while the Men's and Women's Doubles teams will need to dig deep and manage their endurance for a longer, tougher battle. Use this data to set your goals and refine your training for the final push!
Thanks,
Steve.
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