Redline '25 Time Predictions: A Data-Driven Forecast for Singles Events

Forecasting the Finish Line

With the Redline Fitness Games just around the corner, one question is on every athlete's mind: "What's a good target time for my race?" This year, with significant changes to the stations and standards, historical data is more valuable than ever for making an educated guess. So, the Redline Results team fired up the data engine to create a forecast for the 2025 Singles events!

A Health Warning: This comes with a big disclaimer! These predictions are our best effort, based on analyzing past performance data and the new 2025 rulebook. We encourage you to use this as a guide and make your own predictions before the big day! 😉

The Prediction Summary

First, let's get straight to the results. Based on our analysis, here are the predicted ~Median Times for the 2025 Singles categories compared to their 2024 counterparts. The "Median Time" is calculated as the average finish time of athletes who placed in the 45th-55th percentile of their event.

You can find actual median time calculations (and various other pacints) for all past races on Redline Results by selecting your event and choosing the "Pacing Table 'Actual'" option.

How Are These Predictions Made?

How do we arrive at these numbers? It involves a bit of data analysis and some educated guesstimation, especially for the brand new stations. To do these calculations, you first need to look at the station-by-station changes for the event you are analyzing and estimate what impact those changes will have on the station time. You work your way through all the stations to build a complete event prediction. The most difficult part is forecasting the new movements for '25: the 'Shuttle Runs', 'Russian Twists', and 'Squat Thrusts'.

Women's Level 3 (Advanced) vs. '24 Competitive

Men's Level 3 (Advanced) vs. '24 Competitive

So how do you apply this? Let me take myself as an example in Men's Single Competitive '24 I had a near death experience with a time of 43:13. If I want to predict what would be equivalent time I just increase time by 7%. This will be give me a time of 46:05 for the Men's Singles Level 3 Competitive! So if in the end I finish with a time of 45:59, I'll be happy that I beat equivalent time, rather than sad that I was almost 3 minutes slower than last year!

Women's Level 2 (Intermediate) vs. '24 Open

Men's Level 2 (Intermediate) vs. '24 Open

The Hot Take & A Note on Winners

The most surprising prediction from this analysis is that the **Women's Level 2 (Intermediate) competitors on average will take longer than the Women's Level 3 (Advanced) competitors!** Could this be true? The data suggests that the changes made to the Open -> Level 2 transition (+31% time increase) were more significant than the changes for Competitive -> Level 3 (+16%). We'll only know for sure on race day!

Another question is, will these percentage changes apply to the winners? Unfortunately, it's unlikely. Elite winners (and often those at the other end of the spectrum) are typically outliers whose performance doesn't always scale linearly with the average. These predictions are most useful if you're targeting a finish in the main pack (e.g., Top 30% or better) or if you competed last year and want a rough estimate of how your time might translate.

Conclusion

For more data analysis and to explore past results in detail, take a look around the Redline Results explorer. Use the data to set informed goals, but remember that on race day, anything can happen!

Thanks,
Steve.